When the history is written the background to the latest moves in the peace process may not be favourable to Tony Blair. When the talks adjourned before Christmas the parties in Stormont had attempted — and failed — finally to set an agenda. Despite four months of talks, no substantive negotiations had taken place and the parties had not even been able to agree on what they should be talking about. Unionists wanted to exclude issues of policing, demilitarisation, equality and justice. Sinn Fein insisted that everything must be on the table. The two governments then decided that ten weeks of intensive negotiations would begin on 12th January. The governments pledged that they would take the lead in pushing the process forward.
This happened against the background of increasing Unionist and loyalist nervousness about the talks. It had become clear that the talks must produce fundamental change, including, at the very least, all-Ireland bodies. David Trimble’s Ulster Unionists have all along refused to engage with Sinn Fein and have adopted stalling tactics throughout. It is as if Trimble recognises that his job has been to hold back the progress of history. Unionist nervousness had surfaced publicly before Christmas when the small loyalist party, the PUP, indicated that they may not turn up for talks on 12th January.
They complained that they were being treated as “bit players” and that there had been “a flow of concessions to republicans”. Then, following the shooting dead of loyalist killer Billy Wright inside Long Kesh (the Maze) prison by the INLA and the killing of two Catholics by loyalist death squads, all the Unionist and loyalist parties rushed to condemn the “concessions”. And yet, when they have been asked, “what concessions?”, there were no coherent answers.
The evidence shows that the surface of the necessary changes — labelled “concessions” by unionists — has not even been scratched. Issues of equality and demilitarisation have been resolutely kept off the agenda by Unionists, with the backing of the British Government’s influential security establishment. Not a single prisoner has been released by the British Government. On the ground, military posts have been strengthened and nationalist concerns about the RUC have not even been considered. Inequality in areas such as employment and culture is nowhere near being tackled. Cries of bias were unsustainable. The evidence is simply not there.
Indeed, when the crisis was over the Sunday Tribune reported that “UDP activists readily admit that the stream of concessions to the IRA about which their party has complained is more of a perception than a reality.” And behind the spurious claims, David Trimble was in regular contact with Tony Blair, urging him to calm this Unionist-inspired “crisis” by backing a talks agenda which would ensure that the process could not lead to a united Ireland. It was a calculated exploitation of the sectarian murders of Catholics.
The suspicion has to be that the Unionist and loyalist leadership recognised that the talks must produce fundamental change — and soon. There must be a society based on justice and equality, something they are finding impossible to deal with. As 12th January approached the ball was firmly in the British court. Mowlam and Blair had a choice. They could back Unionist and loyalist demands for no change — in other words, follow the fine British tradition of playing the Orange card. Or they could push forward a process which will bring real change. In the eyes of republicans, they did not really have much of a choice. The New Labour Government could repeat the mistakes of the past and advocate an internal settlement. Or they could help produce a changed future. When the talks agenda — the so-called Heads of Agreement — was finally unveiled the all-Ireland bodies (so necessary to signal real change) had lost their “executive” powers and would, in any case, be subordinate to a Unionist-inspired Assembly.
The negotiations continue and the details are to be worked out but Blair seems to have signalled his willingness to back a Unionist agenda. Not a great surprise, but it could be a fatal error. There is an inevitability of change in Ireland — the demographic changes, the north-south economic harmonisation and greater links within civil society all point towards an all-Ireland solution. Blair must accept the urgent need to manage this change, not resist it.