Palestine: understanding Wye

Bob Deed, member of the Executive of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign 1995-98 (personal capacity) explains that the new agreement means more of the same.

To understand the meaning of the Wye Agreement signed by the Israeli government, the Palestinian Authority and President Clinton, it is necessary to put it in the context of the fragmentation of the Occupied Palestinian Territories as part of the Oslo "peace process". Wye involved re-parcelling the West Bank with its patchwork of zones: A is policed and controlled by the Palestinian Authority; B is jointly patrolled by Palestinian and Israeli soldiers, with the Palestinian Authority having civilian control and the Israeli army possessing overall "security" control; C is completely Israeli. Before Wye, Zone A amounted to 3%, Zone B 24% and Zone C 72%, after Wye A will grow to 18% and B go down to 22%.

While Wye clearly promised the Palestinian Authority new segments of the West Bank, even after the redeployments the Israelis will continue to control most of the West Bank and one-third of the Gaza Strip. At the start of the Oslo peace process, the Palestinians expected to receive 90% of the Occupied Palestinian Territories during the "interim" phase - with the remaining 10% being subject to negotiation when the issues of Jerusalem and the settlements were discussed in the "final status" talks. The Palestinian Authority's expansion amounts to crumbs - the enclaves of the Authority will be surrounded by Israeli checkpoints able to strangle the economic, social and cultural life of the West Bank.

Zone A's consolidation means that the Palestinian Authority areas will be less fractured geographically. Optimistic Palestinians hope the West Bank will "breathe more easily": the enclaves will expand; a safe passage will open between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; an airport will operate, and a port will open. In reality the Israelis will not easily relinquish their ability to choke the West Bank and Gaza Strip's population. The safe passage promised for years has never materialised.

Wye has been described as a "land-for-security" deal - the Palestinian Authority expected to heighten its repression of its own population. The Agreement requires that the Palestinian Authority pursues a policy of "zero tolerance for terror and violence" and both sides "take all measures necessary in order to prevent acts of terrorism, crime and hostilities". Human rights and the rule of law get a passing reference, dubbed by the Human Rights Watch, "ambiguous and incomplete". Actually the Agreement licenses and mandates human rights abuses. While 750 of over 3,000 Palestinian political prisoners held in Israeli prisons will be released, the Palestinian prisons will be filling up. The clampdown on the Palestinian opposition - both Islamist and secular - has already begun. It will be overseen by the CIA which has a role in scrutinising the Palestinian Authority's performance and adjudicating disputes.

The Wye Agreement will continue the withering of Palestinian social and political life. While Palestinian society flourished under the yoke of Israeli occupation, the years of the Palestinian Authority have suffocated and deformed Palestinian civil society with bureaucracy, corruption and fear. The Palestinian left, struggling to offer any alternative and not showing up in opinion polls, will face an even more difficult environment.

While Wye promises no real change in the lives of the Palestinians on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the impact on Israel is less clear and certain. Arafat describing Netanyahu as his "partner" may contribute to the realignment of Israeli politics. The Agreement is likely to further fracture the Israeli right. The far right played a key role for Netanyahu in his electoral and governmental coalition. The settlers and their supporters, both secular and religious, hate the "peace process" although it has not altered the status of a single settlement or settler. They will not forgive Netanyahu for continuing the process started by Rabin and Peres - he is already branded a traitor.

Splits on the Israeli right may result in the emergence of a national-unity government. Such a Labour-Likud coalition is not likely to benefit the Palestinians. It may further strengthen the Israeli government in negotiations. The likelihood of a national-unity government is likely to hinge on the calculations of the Labour leadership.

The protracted negotiations leading to Wye have led to stress in the US-Israeli alliance. The US were frustrated by the Israelis' willingness to argue for months over fractions of the West Bank. Moreover, Israeli intransigence upset the US's other client regimes in the region: it disrupted their campaign against Iraq as well as further discrediting the US's regional hegemony, creating disharmony between the Israeli government and the most pro-Israeli US President in decades. The long-term implications are unclear although those Palestinians who are placing all their hopes in Clinton are likely to be disappointed. If the Palestinian Authority declares "independence" in May 1999, when the "interim" phase comes to an end, the US won't grant the truncated statelet any favours, let alone recognition.

Overall the Wye Agreement means more of the same - its purpose was to sustain the stalled "peace process" which ultimately will fail to meet the most minimal demands of the Palestinians even if it has so far successfully bought off most of their leadership. The question remains what happens when it is no longer possible to breathe any life into the process started by Oslo.

Contact the Palestine Solidarity Campaign at BM PSA, London WC1N 3XX.

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