A recent Sandinista communique documents the electoral fraud. Over 850 telegrammed results switched votes from the Sandinistas to the Liberal Alliance. Over 2,500 final-vote tallies are considered problematic. In the department of Managua alone, all records from 262 polling places were not legally constituted and 1,000 polling places had inconsistent documentation. Similar problems are apparent in Matagalpa and Jinotega. In all three departments, Liberal Alliance activists were the presidents of the Departmental Electoral Councils, overseeing the conduct of the poll.
The Sandinistas are calling for new elections where the most serious abuses occurred. The underlying problem arises from a politicisation of the Electoral Councils, whose heads were nominated by political parties following a change in the electoral law. Earlier this year, the head of the Supreme Electoral Council resigned, saying he had inadequate resources to tackle the problem, and as a result elections "cannot be considered fair."
Yet Sandinista leaders are admitting that any re-count is unlikely to reduce Aleman's lead below the 45% necessary to trigger a second round. So the question has to be asked: Why did the Sandinistas lose again?
Everyone recognises the Sandinistas have moderated their approach since the 1979 armed insurrection that brought them to power. This time they campaigned on the need for economic reactivation, the promotion of domestic producers through accessible credit and the creation of 150,000 jobs. Their vice-presidential candidate was chosen to appeal to the business sector - an agricultural businessman who voted for the now discredited UNO coalition in 1990 and whose land was confiscated under the Sandinistas. Even the Party's revolutionary anthem was replaced by Beethoven's Ode to Joy.
In the summer, Daniel Ortega and 20 other presidential candidates signed the Minimum Agenda, a document drawn up by over 100 organisations, including trade unions, producer groups, community and women's organisations. It highlights Nicaragua's critical problems of poverty, crime, poor sanitation, housing, health and education and calls for an incoming government to tackle corruption and improve living standards. The only candidate not to sign was Aleman, thus promoting his anti-establishment credentials while promising the earth to rich and poor alike.
The Minimum Agenda was promoted by Nicaragua's right-wing Archbishop Obando y Bravo, although this did not prevent him from denouncing the Sandinistas and appearing in public with Aleman in the closing stages of the campaign. The US State Department also publicly attacked the Sandinistas, who even faced physical attacks. Six activists were killed in a wave of violence led by Liberal Alliance supporters.
But there are deeper reasons for the Sandinistas' defeat. 75% of Nicaraguan people live in poverty; 60% are unemployed. With the privatisation of 354 state companies in six years, the public sector has been cut by more than two-thirds. One woman in three is a lone mother caring for between five and six children on average. Seven hundred and fifty thousand children have no access to primary or secondary education. Illiteracy has risen to 30%.
Most Nicaraguans are quite simply desperate. These levels of deprivation are scarcely compatible with a democratic society or the exercise of rational choice in an election. The IMF and the World Bank made it clear they would accept no renegotiation of the country's punitive Structural Adjustment Programme. Aleman, as a well-financed populist dispensing free gifts and wild promises, was well-placed to take advantage of the despair. Meanwhile, to the clear distaste of some of their traditional supporters, the Sandinistas' pragmatic concern for alliance building with the right did not seem likely to resolve the country's fundamental problems.
What now? Aleman's record as the ruthless mayor of Managua and the funding of his campaign by right-wing Cubans suggest the new president may not let civil liberties or the law stand in his way. He has promised a "Truth Commission" which will revise, case by case, all amnesties granted since 1979 in order to deal with those who should have been tried for "murder and the acquisition of properties". How far he will go may depend on the social balance of forces, but his victory could destabilise the fragile regional peace.
The Sandinistas remain caught between the pressure for radical change from their traditional base and the calls for moderation from an increasingly well-heeled leadership. Running local councils and a further six years of national opposition will undoubtedly heighten these internal tensions.
